Adaptive Expectations
expectations based on the extrapolation of events in the recent past into the future | ||||
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Adaptive Expectations Definition from Encyclopedia Dictionaries & Glossaries
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Adaptive expectations
In economics, adaptive expectations means that people form their expectations about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. For example, if inflation has been higher than expected in the past, people would revise expectations for the future.
One simple version of adaptive expectations is stated in the following equation, where 
is the next year's rate of inflation that is currently expected; 
is this year's rate of inflation that was expected last year; and 
is this year's actual rate of inflation:
With 
is between 0 and 1, this says that current expectations of future inflation reflect past expectations and an "error-adjustment" term, in which current expectations are raised (or lowered) according to the gap between actual inflation and previous expectations. This error-adjustment is also called "partial adjustment."
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